Junction City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

683
FXUS63 KTOP 081146
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
646 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front tomorrow afternoon brings a chance for storms
  across east central KS. There may be a short window for
  severe storms southeast of I-35.

- Drier Monday through Wednesday with temperatures staying
  near/below average.

- Chances for showers/storms return for the second half of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Early this morning, water vapor satellite showed a deep upper low over
south central Canada, a shorter wave length upper trough was shifting
east across the OH and TN River Valleys.

The 7Z surface map showed a cold front extending southward across
east central MN, then southwest across northeast NE, then southwest
into northeast CO. Patchy fog was forming in some of the river
valleys and that may continue until sunrise.

Today:

The upper low across south central Canada will dig southeast into
northern MN. The surface front across central NE will push southeast
across the CWA during the mid morning to early afternoon hours. Most
CAMs have the front southeast of the CWA as storms develop along the
front by 20Z. So, if the CAMs are correct there may not be much
severe weather in the southeast counties this afternoon. If the
front is a bit slower, then areas along and southeast of I-35
could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms. The environment
ahead of the front will have MLCAPES around 1500 J/kg and 35 KTS
of effective shear. The richer moisture, higher instability,
and stronger vertical windshear will be located across OK into
AR. As the southern extent of the H5 trough digs southeast
across the central Plains, there could be a few post frontal
showers and thunderstorms across east central KS due to the
ascent ahead of the H5 trough axis. These post frontal storms
should not be severe.

Tonight through Wednesday:

The H5 low over northern MN will translate east across the northern
Lakes into Quebec, Canada. The H5 trough extending southward from
the H5 low will amplify across the eastern US. The plains will be in
northwesterly mid level flow through late Tuesday. The upper flow
will become zonal through mid week. Look for a warm up on
Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Wednesday night through Sunday:

Weak mid level perturbations moving east across the Plains along
with the return of richer gulf moisture will provide low chances for
showers and storms through Friday night. An upper trough will move
onshore across the western US during the weekend. A down stream H5
ridge across the high plains will amplify and may keep us dry
through next weekend. However, the GFS model amplifies the H5 ridge
a bit farther west than the ECMWF, if the GFS is more accurate, then
minor perturbations may round the H5 ridge axis and dig southeast
across the Plains providing for small chance of showers and
thunderstorms through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

There may be some shallow ground fog at MHK and TOP through 13Z.
A cold front will move through the terminals during the mid and
late morning hours switching winds to the north at 8 to 12 KTS
with some minor gusts. I cannot rule out an isolated shower this
afternoon into the early evening hours across the KTOP and KFOE
terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan